Next eruption at Sundhnúksgígaröð could exceed previous one by 30% according to expert

The next volcanic eruption at the Sundhnúksgígaröð could be approximately 30% larger than the last one, according to a meteorological expert. The eruption that began on August 22 was the largest since magma accumulation started beneath the Svartsengi area last year.

Land subsidence and magma gathering under Svartsengi continue, suggesting that a lava flow and possibly another eruption could occur based on previous events at the Sundhnúksgígaröð. The last eruption exceeded 60 million cubic meters and spanned over 16 square kilometers, with the fissure extending more than seven kilometers.

If the current trends persist, the next eruption may follow suit and potentially be 30% larger in volume than the last one, reaching around 80 million cubic meters. However, the size of the lava flow depends significantly on where the eruption occurs, whether on a flat area or at a higher elevation.

The greatest risk lies in the possibility of an eruption beginning with considerable force, which could result in a very short warning time of as little as 30 minutes. In the last eruption, the fissure reached considerably farther north than in previous events, and while the next eruption may occur even farther north, there remains little risk that it would threaten the Reykjanesbraut highway.

As the time between eruptions appears to be increasing, it may take several weeks after reaching certain magma volume thresholds before an eruption actually begins, extending the overall timeline of volcanic activity.